Winter badness pool, anyone?

[Steve in Idaho]

I'm not sure how one would measure it, but now might be a good time to make guesses on just how bad this winter will be in North America. I'm going to make a bet that this will be a repeat on last year here in the PNW - based on the Farmers Almanac and on the early snow we had on our camping trip first half of this week. Still 20° colder than normal here today. The cold didn't surprise us, but the amount of snow and the altitude of the snow level sure did. Upside is we paddled by one of the biggest bull moose I've seen in Idaho.

 

[memaquay]

I'm thinking it's gonna be a good one, lots of snow and cold temps! A fella can hope anyway, need to get some winter camping in.

 

[snapper]

In my part of central NYS the acorns & apples are in great abundance. The spruce trees also have larger and more cones than usual. In the past, these have all been indicators of what I consider to be a "good" winter being on the horizon. Hopefully we'll get our snow throughout the season instead of in one massive dump like we did this past March.

That's all for now. Take care and until next time....be well.

snapper

 

[BWCA66]

In MN today the heat index is over 100 F and football games are being postponed because of it. Welcome to fall.

 

[frozentripper]

It's unusually high temps here too... my guess is that late-season brook trout fishing will be poor since the nearshore water will not have cooled enough by Sept 30, the season's close.

No idea about winter since it's so far out... shorter-term, the fall color forecast for Algonquin Park seems to be a delayed or muted sugar maple color peak:

A recent extended period of unseasonably hot, dry conditions has dramatically slowed the colour change of Sugar Maples. Leaves part-way through their colour change process have stalled and are currently receiving little incentive to proceed with their colour change because of the warm, calm conditions.

Determining the exact fall colour peak for maples will be difficult this year, given the slow rate of colour change and the extended calm conditions that will allow fragile leaves to persist on the trees until the first rain or wind event.

http://www.algonquinpark.on.ca/visit/general_park_info/fall-colour-report.php


IIRC, dry, hot, fall weather doesn't make for the most colorful maples... leaves dry out on the trees and color is less intense... although, not 100% sure on this.

 

[yellowcanoe]

Dry. Not hot. The colors are muted. Light plays a huge part in when they emerge so it's pretty much on time. Beech nuts in abundance. Acorns too
Winter is on us. The lobsters are going back to hard shell early in spite of a very late molt
Colors near peak up north

 

[DanOver]

Good apple, plum and pear yields in my buddy's yard. Lots of acorns. But it's been awful dry for the farmers. I mean, REALLY dry.....I went out this morning and I saw two trees fighting over a dog!!

 

[Mihun09]

Hoping for a Southern Ontario type Winter in Manitoba. Much like my last Winter in Guelph Ontario, get 11 inches of snow, it is gone in a week. Repeat throughout the entire winter.

 

[Odyssey]

Well I don't know. Why don't you all just make up your minds what kind of winter you'd like this year. And then tell me. Because as soon as I retire the shovel and pull the trigger on my first snowblower, all across the northeast you can be rest assured we will never see snow, ever again. That is until the new snowblower breaks down. And then the storm of the century will pay us a visit. But if you all just want to carry on with the norm, whatever that is, I'll stick with my shovel, and we'll be surprised when it snows, be equally surprised when it suddenly melts, and be really excited/pissed off when it does that century thing. But I love it. I can't imagine a mundane world with perfectly predictable weather.
Here's something to get you in the mood for winter. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDHFU7HeZPc

 

[snapper]

Odyssey - Stick with your shovel

Until next time....be well.

snapper

 

[frozentripper]

Mihun,

Hoping for a Southern Ontario type Winter in Manitoba. Much like my last Winter in Guelph Ontario, get 11 inches of snow, it is gone in a week. Repeat throughout the entire winter.

Yep, there wasn't much snow last year, which may have been unusual... maybe this year the unusual fall will carry on right on into winter, which means no shovelling snow. And unusual for a heat warning being issued for S Ontario right now which isn't cool. Nope, not cool at all, if you're an apartment dweller in Toronto where municipal law states furnaces must be turned on after Sept 21.

Still pretty green here in the Algonquin area, and I don't know why they recommended this weekend and the next several days for busloads of photographers to come on up.

Algonquin webcam, mostly poplar, there are sugar maples in the distant hills and to the right in the panorama.

http://www.algonquinpark.on.ca/virtual/webcam/index.php

Much better IMO is Lake of Bay's webcam just outside the park's west boundary, lots of sugar maples there, still very green.

http://loba.ca/web-cam/

 

[yellowcanoe]

11 in of snow? Melt ? Repeat?
What fun is that?
Far better to have 17 inches at Thanksgiving. Settle it. Next week. 3 more storms of 2-3 inches

Then in Jan it stops snowing. Does not melt. By now you live in creeped as the hardpack has turned to ice
Feb brings 71 in one week. Then it stops. Mar and April the every 3 day cycle of 2 inches

Adds up to about 150
Inches
Then in June when you thought it was done in the nearby mountains. 31 inches on the 14 th
We'll be in snow in the mountains come Native American Day

Odyssey. Do not go for snowblower. If you get heavy snow or compacted snow from repeated plowing you'll tear your hair out
For us it's cheaper to hire a snowplow for our 300 ft driveway

 

[frozentripper]

My two pesos on what's ahead this winter... IIRC the men in the white coats and thick glasses waving their arms in the air about climate warming are predicting more extreme weather, which may or may not be in effect here in S Ontario with the record-breaking heat wave. IIRC again they are getting into a sweat over the weakening of the polar vortex, which means in combination with warmer temperatures and heat spells, there will be portions of the polar vortex breaking off during the winter and going south, for unusually low temps at times, followed by, wheeeee, January thaw and false spring. And then another bitterly cold spell where climate change deniers will be going, see, told ya so. And then a very early spring where ice huts and snowmobiles will be breaking through the ice and this will be covered on the six o'clock news by reporters wearing fashionable outdoor clothes.

 

[Odyssey]

I think I see where your problem is YC. You're celebrating Thanksgiving way too late. Do the right thing and move it up to October. Just think about it. Roasting a bird in the BBQ and making turnip mash, all while there isn't a foot of snow on the ground. You can open the windows and doors, just in case somebody burnt the Brussels sprouts. (No loss there.) Except this plan might mess with the football schedule. Nothing I can do about that.

 

[yellowcanoe]

Why in the world would I want to have to attend a family dinner and make nicey nice indoors over too big a meal when I can still be camping comfortably with nice dehydrated food at a minimum and being in the woods taking pictures of fall colors or on top of Mt Washington taking pics of rime ice.. You Canadians have it wrong.. why that day when you can still be outdoors? Turkey? Heck I would so a pig roast outside then

At least on Thanksgiving I can have help shoveling snow and the grandkids can play hockey perhaps on the lake but for sure at a pick up game at a rink... Football? Uh no.. Hockey year round.

 

[Odyssey]

Well at least we're on the same page when it comes to hockey.

 

[frozentripper]

And the weather that made hockey possible in the first place...

 

[yellowcanoe]

However there is nothing like taking a winter coat and hat into an ice rink.
In July...
You guys in southern Ontario have it hard.. Our winter is more dependable as we are north of many of you. Yet "south of the border", Maine extends as far north as Wawa ON.

 

[frozentripper]

Our winter is more dependable as we are north of many of you.

Yep, never a dull moment here in the banana belt. One of these days I'm gonna have a heart attack shovelling snow because all those mild winters earlier on didn't provide enough preparation for the really big dump whenever that does happen.

Actually, Kim, moving back to common ground, we both have something to be thankful for, the anniversary of my hip replacement surgery is almost two years to the day of Canadian T-giving. I survived and I have the scars to prove it and the horrors of having to spend three nights in a Toronto hospital with nurses taking turns at inspecting the catheter and talking about it in the hallway have almost faded away.. Something tells me your knee replacement also went well, since you're back to paddling... enjoy the miracle, cheers.

 

[yellowcanoe]

Tis OK. but still have pain kneeling.. Sitting in canoe is fine and I was able to paddle 12 weeks post surgery.. In Florida.. At home while I was paddling in the tropics we had the 71 inches in a week,
Ick on the catheter. My SIL has two cause her bladder is cancerous. Another story.