10-day forecast: tripper's friend or foe?

[Chip]

Since 2012 I've had a flexible schedule, yet I think I go out tripping less than before. When I had a regular job, things had to be scheduled in advance. I'd put a trip on the calendar, and when the time came, mostly I went. Now, I defer to the 10-day forecast.

I'm feeling the urge for an Assateague trip, where wind is a big determinant of how pleasant the trip will be. Previously, my rule was if the wind forecast was less than 20mph and the temperature was acceptable, I'd go. One thing I learned was that out on the big open bays, a forecast of 20 almost always yielded winds more intense than 20. I believe the figure stated in the forecast is for sustained wind, and stronger gusts seem to be the rule.

Now, I look at forecasts for 10-15, or 10-20, and say "I'll wait for a better day," which the 10-day forecast seems always to dangle out there in the 7 - 10 range. By the time a week rolls by, the updated forecast calls for much stronger winds, so I wait for a better day, which always seems to be out there. Meanwhile, no tripping is getting done. I could suck it up and just take the sea kayak, in which wind isn't that big a deal, but I sure would prefer a canoe for that particular trip.

Perhaps I need to remind myself of a couple trips to Assateague when I either had to call in and say "I can't come to work because I'm stuck on this island," or the two occasions when the wind was so strong that I had to get out and pull the boat back (shallow bays out there). I don't remember it being fun at the time, but now look back at those trips as epic.

Is anybody else waiting for the weather? Or do you just say I'm going on a particular date, hell or high winds?

 

[Gdwelker]

Yep. When I was working it eas "hell with the westher I am going...". Now, so far this year everytime I decided not to go because of the predicted weather even two days out I have ended up at home during glorious weather. No more of that next year!

 

[Robin]

I plan on going into Lows Lake again next spring just after ice out and the weather forecast will determine my put in day and probably how long I will stay. Many times while camped at the western end of Lows with a heavy load of canvas tent and stove cot and extra clothes I have ended my trip by listing to the weather on my small weather radio, a predicted east wind or high mph west wind will alter my plans.

Back when I was working, I never altered my plans because of long term forecasts, but I did watch them.

 

[yellowcanoe]

Never.
Anything past 72 hours is a best guess based on models
In the Everglades even a daily forecast is often wrong with respect to winds. I've got some 20 days paddling when there was a small craft advisory. And some 10'beating feet to a campsite with winds forecast for five to ten

In Maine you can't seem to trust any forecast. We got three inches of "where did that come from" yesterday

 

[Marten]

I think the weather forecasters do a good job but only print the 10 days for joke material after 5. Wind prediction must be really tough to get right. A pilot friend told when the wind does not show up on the ground itmay just be a little higher. Big water on the other hand seems to let it pick up steam, or it just feels that way to me. The weather has never delayed a trip except for violent thunderstorms or lack of open water on early fly-in trips. In hind sight I do wish we had gotten motel rooms last spring until the ice fell from our vehicles.

 

[Waterdog]

I don't put much stock in weather reports these days. I think you need to make the time to go and have alternate routes planned whenever possible. Too much time slips by from second guessing. I usually tell the boss I'll be back in 14 days but could be delayed a few days due to weather or injury. If I'm past schedule more than 4 days, my wife will call my employer. Like Chip says, sometimes the weather is part of an epic trip. You won't know till you've done it (and maybe the forecast was wrong)!

On the alternate side of that, water levels can be more of an impact. Or "extreme" weather events. I was at the ADK paddling during one of the recent "superstorms" a couple years ago and was winded in for a couple days before heading back to the put-in. I've gone to ADK and Minnesota right at ice out with disregard for weather. I'd rather end up portaging through 12" of snow then see a blackfly! The year I bought my Stewart River canoe, I drove 21 hours to Alex's house in Knife River MN and never considered if the ice was actually out for my 10 day trip. There was a lot of snow but I lucked out with no ice. I recall the weather being nice for most of that trip.

Get out there (be safe)!

Barry

 

[Odyssey]

Short term forecasts have been fairly accurate and helpful to me when I plan where I'll be on a given route. I'll plan a layover day for when a storm front first moves in, but don't mind paddling in a low pressure steady drizzle for a couple days. It's easy to check one last time before heading out to reassess the itinerary. "Big storm due in 3 days, so we'll make for lake x and hunker down for a layover there. Sunny skies by day 5 so we'll choose lake y for a good swimming spot."
Long term forecasts I don't trust too much, unless severe weather systems are coming. In any and all cases, we keep an eye on the sky.
I do check long term forecasts to plan around though; I'm not that committed to spending an entire trip in the rain. We're planning a trip next May, and it'll be largely up to the forecast temperatures when we decide to load up and go. Dates and days are far less meaningful to us than weather trends. I'd rather aim for a window of favourable weather rather than arbitrary dates on a calendar. And if we get jinxed, and spend a week in the cold rain, then I'm sure the weatherman has been cursed before.

 

[yellowcanoe]

Reading the sky is so much more informative

 

[snapper]

In speaking with some true weather folks (aka: meteorologists), it seems that the best they can really predict is about 3 days out. After that, everything is based on trends. I've also discovered that weather can be widely off from even the best of predictions (I've experienced 100% of a predicted 10% rain more times than I care to remember). That being said, what I find works for me is to watch the weather patterns where I am; i.e. wind directional change, cloud formation, smoke rising, etc. Usually you can figure things out 12 to 24 hours in advance; enough to alter plans if need be. Now that's not perfect, but it seems to work and allows me to go out and prepare for any inclement weather I may meet up with along the way.

That's all for now. Take care and until next time...be well.

snapper

 

[frozentripper]

I'm not so sure that that ten-day forecast isn't actually useful... at least, useful under the right circumstances. For example, if you happen to be leading a group canoe trip, a very real benefit is you can blame the ten-day forecast when things start to go wrong.

When things go terribly wrong, people need to find a scapegoat to place the burden of blame on. "Oh #%&@&... it's those ivory-tower meteorologists... they sit there in their comfy office chairs, wave their fat arms around spewing their deluded notions of what it's actually like out here. Well, never mind them, climate change is going to kill us all anyway".

Throw in the landscape while you're at it... try using... "It's not all rainbows and lollipops out here you know... this is a harsh and desolate land." You can also use "this is a harsh and desolate land" to explain away a lot of other problems... why it's been raining for five days running, why the much-anticipated trout dinner got burned to a black cinder, why the thunderbox is full to overflowing, why blackflies cause insanity, and why the food on the return drive home has to be from McDonald's... "this is a harsh and desolate land".

Anyway, back to dealing with the consequences of the ten-day forecast... words of wisdom from Dean Martin... "Really, you aren't too drunk if you can still hold onto the ground."

And may she rest in peace in that great big campsite in the sky....

With enough butter, anything tastes good.

...Julia Child

 

[Guest]

Since 2012 I've had a flexible schedule, yet I think I go out tripping less than before. When I had a regular job, things had to be scheduled in advance. I'd put a trip on the calendar, and when the time came, mostly I went. Now, I defer to the 10-day forecast.


Is anybody else waiting for the weather? Or do you just say I'm going on a particular date, hell or high winds?

Part of it is the forecast. I now wait for favorable weather to start a trip, at least when paddling within a day’s drive.

Part of it is lack of rigid schedule.

When the Duckheads were an active paddling group we had at least one scheduled trip per month, on a schedule that was distributed in January, and we went come hell or high water, rain wind or snow. Those trips were often epic, and even at the time I recognized that I wouldn’t get out as weather-be-danged often if it were not for scheduled trips and companions committed to going.

In 30 years of pre-scheduled monthly Duckhead trips I may have cancelled a handful. I didn’t want to be the one to wuss out, and contacting everyone already committed at the last minute on group trips was nigh impossible.

I heard of a guy who planned to paddle, or maybe night paddle, every full moon for a year and did so.

Today, post-retirement and post-club trips, I am far more likely to trip solo and, if local, more spur of the moment. I look at (actually print and take with me) the 10 day forecast, mostly for the relative reliability of the first few days.

All I am looking for in that forecast is a getaway wind and weather window and enough insurance time to wait it out if/when it turns ugly, or at least use the weather radio to plan my pack up and paddle or stay put inclinations. The beauty of flexibility makes me less inclined to “schedule” group trips.

My Assateague preferences are more complex. I prefer new (or full moon) for tides. And a morning high tide soon after the Ranger Station opens, which five or six days later means an early afternoon high tide paddle out, with plenty of no-rush time to pack up and linger.

If I can nab a launch day with a steady 10-15 MPH tailwind I can sail all the way in. Throw in an interesting dark skies astronomical event to provide some memorable late night or pre-dawn star gazing. (See, Leonid Fireball Storm of ’98. A group trip counted over 400 meteors, including fireballs that went nearly from horizon to horizon, bolides, skippers, chunks that split in two. Awesome crap)

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news012.html

Or, still on NASA links, a rocket launch from Wallops Island. I have been trying for a rocket launch for years, and I was there for one. I just didn’t see it. The launch had been postponed and, unbeknownst to me, went up while I was still there. Facing in the wrong direction.

IIRC, nothing launchs from Wallops until April 2017.
Florida trippers check the Cape Canaveral launch schedule; the big stuff launches from Canaveral. The Ulumay Wildlife Sanctuary is just outside the exclusion zone.

http://www.brevardfl.gov/ParksRecreation/Central/Ulumay/Home

For Assateague maybe the Quadrantid meteor shower just after New Years. The tides are then completely wrong for an Old Ferry Landing launch, but near perfect for a Chincoteague launch.

http://www.amsmeteors.org/meteor-showers/meteor-shower-calendar/

So, I don’t want much. Fair wind and weather in January, favorable tides, shooting stars or rocket launches. If possible I’d like favorable winds for sailing out at trip’s end as well. That never gets old.

 

[yellowcanoe]

probably the only forecast that matters to me

https://www.windfinder.com/

 

[Guest]

probably the only forecast that matters to me

https://www.windfinder.com/

I like that site as well.

Less informative but more visually intriguing, Windmap:

http://hint.fm/wind/

That continental overview has been a help in understanding coming effect and impact of weather patterns as they sweep across the county, and what that portends for long distance travel.

Or at least looking at places and thinking “dang glad I’m not there right now”.

 

[Jim Dodd]

probably the only forecast that matters to me

https://www.windfinder.com/

Exactly what I was looking for ! Thank You !!!

​ My Oldest son bow hunts for Whitetail, and wind direction is paramount to him. He and I appreciate the link !

Jim

 

[Chip]

Book marked that wind finder site. Thanks for that one.

[I prefer new (or full moon) for tides.

I've never been able to figure out tides over there. I look up the tides , but when I am over there, the water levels do not coincide with the tide tables. Since Mike does it, I suspect operator error. But it's tides, not rocket science.

 

[Guest]

I've never been able to figure out tides over there. I look up the tides , but when I am over there, the water levels do not coincide with the tide tables.

For an Old Ferry Landing launch at Assateague and staying at Tingles, Pine Tree or Green Run I use this site and select “Public Landing” on Chincoteague, which is almost directly across from Pine Tree.

http://www.saltwatertides.com/dynamic.dir/marylandsites.html

Then jump to date selection, chose month and days and “get tides”. I can cut & paste print up to 14 days worth of tides at a time. That gives me a handy reference page of high and low tide times, height variance in feet, sun rise and set, moon rise and set.

For a lunch from the Virginia end choose Tom’s Cove, or Chincoteague Channel if you have (legal) use of a put in and parking on that island.

I expect one of those 12 tide sites on Chincoteague Bay works best for the Pope Bay camp. If you figure out which one let me know. Next time I’m at Pope Bay I need to mark the printed tide page I bring along with the high and low times at that site and input the dates of my visit on those other tide site selections to figure out which one best correlates with that location.

Coming in from the south end there are at least three possible routes; out wide (and deeper) and turn east at the north end of Pope Island near duck blind #21. Or turn east at the south end of Pope Island near the Pope Bay Oyster Company shack and up the (shallow) Pope Bay, past the old Clements boat house and into the Pope Bay site. (If you come to blind #21 you’ve gone a bit too far)

The third route choice is for wind emergencies only and involves a short (and illegal) carry over a sand berm before the State line.

The usual caveats: Wind blows water into or out of the bayside marshes, sometimes with more and longer lasting impact than tidal levels. And even with calm winds the high and low tidal timing back in the marsh sneak routes can run up as much as two hours behind tidal times. That marsh is a giant sponge and it takes a long time to infill completely, and an equally long time to fully drain.

I use the same site for coastal tides in North Carolina.

http://www.saltwatertides.com/dynamic.dir/ncarolinasites.html

For example, Hammocks Beach/Bear Island use Bouge Inlet under Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. The launch on the mainland runs 1 ½ hours behind Bogue Inlet (+/-)

 

[Seeker]

I have to plan my annual Adirondack trek a year out, so I'm stuck with a given 2 week window to do a few days of paddling... I might rearrange things a bit, like sliding a day or two one way or the other based on a forecast, but I just don't have the luxury of moving the whole thing.

For regular non-canoeing outdoor stuff, weather is no factor... I go outside, regardless.